by Bill from Tampa
The voting indicates a couple of things.
First, the conference could very well be one of the tightest races at any time that we have seen since FSU joined the ACC. A number of star players have moved on, notably for Florida State Toney Douglas. But a number of very highly recruited players to replace them will make their college debut in a couple of weeks. For FSU that will be Michael Snaer.
The ebb and flow of that recruiting process has brought teams closer together in terms of talent. The slots from one through eight, maybe even nine, are up for grabs. Some lucky breaks or bad breaks could really affect a team’s fortunes in the league this year.
So while FSU is picked 7th, a position that I personally think is a little low, catch a few good breaks here and there along with a talented returning squad and the Seminoles could finish as high as third or possibly with some really good play challenge for second.
That won’t be easy however. It never is in the ACC.
Second, the results tell me that that the voters put a lot of weight in the departure of Douglas and not a whole lot of faith in Derwin Kitchen.
Certainly you can understand why. The media is not much different in some ways than fans. They are often reactionary. So with losing Toney’s 21.5 ppg and its go-to guy in the closing moments of games, the media reacted in thinking Kitchen in his first year running the offense will be a drop off from Douglas.
That is their perception. Perception is often wrong.
Let’s take a look at North Carolina, for example. The Tar Heels lost four major components: Tyler Hansbrough, Wayne Ellington, Ty Lawson, and Danny Green. Running the show for Roy Williams’ team will be Larry Drew. Drew played in 38 games averaging 9.6 minutes per game with 1.9 apg scoring 1.4 ppg.
And yet the Tar Heels were voted to finish first.
Kitchen averaged 25-plus minutes, 2.5 assists, and 7.9 ppg.
Now North Carolina is a different animal in college basketball than Florida State, but the voters are trying to tell us that Kitchen is too inexperienced compared to Drew to run the team? The voters either didn’t see it or forgot Kitchen’s late game heroics against Georgia Tech in the ACC tournament last March.
It is perception similar to the perception of Duke who will use a forward to be the point guard, a tactic Coach K used late last season with some success. Duke should be improved talent-wise but the ball handling and distribution duties are still question marks.
Duke gets the benefit of the doubt though from voters and also is voted to be on top of the heap.
So there is a lot of focus even in the national media on Kitchen and how he will do this coming season. What they forget is that Kitchen ran the offense at Iowa Western Community College and did it effectively averaging over four assists per game.
Also, as the Spain trip showed, Kitchen can run and gun the offense and find the right player in what Leonard Hamilton wants in speeding up the offense.
Is Kitchen another Douglas? Of course not and no coach would try and “replace” what Douglas brought to the floor. That’s why they recruited other players whose strengths will be utilized further now that Douglas has moved onto the NBA.
One of those players is Devidas Dulkys. He struggled with his offense last season (certainly did not struggle with his defense) not converting as many of his three point attempts as he would have liked. Assistant coach Andy Enfield worked on his technique a little in getting his shooting arm on the correct perpendicular plane. That work appears to have paid off with his barrage of threes in Spain and looked much more squared up in the recent Jam With Ham scrimmage, scoring four three-pointers in the ten minute intrasquad game.
Some have expressed concern prior to this season as to where three-point baskets will come from; that the ‘Noles will need to open up space for the frontcourt. Dulkys looks to be a major source for those points if he continues his improvement. Always a confident player in his abilities bordering on cocky, Dulkys appears to be even more confident heading into the season.
Don’t overlook Luke Loucks for threes, either. He appears to have sharpened his shooting eye as well as his range in winning the three point contest in the Jam. Loucks also worked heavily on improving his foot speed over the off season, that should not only boost his ability to lead the break and hit the pinpoint passes Seminole fans saw him make last season, but also improve his defensive capabilities where he sometimes was a liability with certain matchups against teams that liked to run.
The backcourt is rounded out by Snaer. This is a position where FSU will look to boost scoring over last season. At Rancho Verde High School, Snaer certainly showed he could put the ball in the basket averaging 28 ppg. It’s always a transition to college ball, so how Snaer will do remains to be seen. But my guess is that fans will see offensive improvement with maybe some ups and downs over the season.
What Snaer will bring to the floor every game however will be a high basketball intelligence. He has already displayed good court vision, and if the shot is not there has not forced it and instead found the open teammate. Snaer also brings a solid defense with him to FSU. More than solid, actually. Florida’s Kenny Boynton found that out in the McDonald’s All American game. But if Snaer can knock down the threes he did in high school, FSU will be a very tough team to defend.
The expected strength of the team is the frontcourt.
Center Solomon Alabi is the player that attracts the most attention and rightly so. NBA scouts are already salivating over the Nigerian who has only been playing basketball seven years. The stress fracture in his leg two years ago that forced him to have a very lengthy rod inserted caused him to miss a lot of conditioning. As a result he was sometimes pushed away from the basket because he lacked lower body strength. Alabi compensated for that nicely in developing a mid range jump shot that is very deadly.
With a year of intense training Alabi has bulked up to 251 pounds and now has that lower body strength that will make it much tougher to move him away from the rim. Already armed with a decent offensive arsenal, Solomon has added even more to his repertoire with what teammates call an unstoppable hook shot.
And if opponents think he is going to stroll down the floor on break outs they can forget about that quickly. Alabi runs the floor as we as anyone. Pity the poor guard back to defend the fast break only to find a 7-1 player out on the wing receiving the ball for the slam dunk.
FSU fans already know about Alabi’s defense and his commitment to defense when he said at the ACC media gathering that he would prefer to block a shot than have a slam dunk.
Sophmore forward Chris Singleton came to FSU with high expectations. Those expectations didn’t exactly pan out as he thought scoring-wise but he still scored a respectable 8.1 ppg. Struggling at times in league play, Singleton has a year under his belt and expects that he will contribute more to FSU’s offense this season. He will also look to pick up some of the rebounding slack from departed Uche Echefu. The goal by the staff for Singleton is to use him similar to how Echefu was utilized. So look for even bigger rebounding numbers from him and hopefully an improved perimeter game.
Xavier Gibson is someone that Hamilton has labeled as a player with great potential. We saw a glimpse of that potential in the Wisconsin game in the NCAA tournament, when he scored six points in the first half as well a handful of other moments he was on the floor. The biggest issue for Gibson was learning to play the defense Hamilton likes to see his team play. Gibson was just at times a little lost on the rotations on the defensive end.
But that should improve and Gibson has many of the abilities Alabi has. He, like Alabi, has added muscle to his frame, adding 25 pounds in the off season to weigh in at 240 now. That should make him more of a force around the basket.
That extra weight has not slowed him down any as well. Pity that poor guard again when this 6-11 player comes streaking in from the wing.
Senior Ryan Reid is somewhat overlooked. Not a scoring option much of the time in his first three seasons, Reid hopes to add more on the offensive end by improving his overall shooting percentage and converting more of his opportunities around the rim. But his focus will be his defense and his tough physical play where he will do the dirty work under and around the boards. Every team needs someone like that and Ryan has always filled that need.
Reid is Hamilton’s pet player, by the way. Hamilton uses (or needles as he calls it) Ryan in unique ways to motivate the rest of team. If Hamilton really wants to get a point across on some aspect of the team’s play, it’s Reid he uses as his whipping post (for lack of a better term) to get that point across.
Jordan DeMercy will play his usual role as a tough defender. DeMercy will add some points, most of which will more than likely be of the highlight reel slam dunk variety. The fact is the wrist injury he suffered as a junior in high school never healed correctly and even today still affects his jump shot. What FSU gets out of him offensively will be gravy, but you can never have enough good defenders and Jordan fills that bill for FSU.
Terrence Shannon should be interesting. Because of the knee injury that kept him out of action his entire senior year (which is one large reason why Shannon chose FSU, because FSU kept recruiting him when others bailed) Hamilton has said he will use him cautiously and bring him along slowly, not wanting to risk aggravating the knee. Conditioning would be a factor as well. But I have to say I was very impressed with the condition Shannon was already in. He does not have the body of a player just coming into his first year of college. This should be the physical beast to replace Reid once he graduates. Whatever conditioning he can get in during what is always a hectic season that does not allow for much conditioning work, should benefit him and we could see him on the floor at various times giving rest to what is a deep frontcourt.
Pierre Jordan and Joey Moreau round out the roster.
Moreau is a walk-on and more than likely will only see playing time as a late game scrub in blowouts. He does possess a deadly three-point shot.
Jordan is the third string point guard that is an important part of practices in running the scout team. He does have skills in distributing the ball but lack of size is a factor in ACC play. Still he has three seasons to develop his game and eventually earn some floor time.
So there you have an assessment of this year’s squad that hopes to make a return trip to the NCAA tournament, and more importantly, make a longer run to the dance.
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