OFFENSE
What we know: UVA is still pretty bad on offense. Despite whipping up on two I-AA teams (Richmond and VMI), the Cavs still have a mediocre offense at best. In their only game against an FBS team (USC), Virginia scored just 14 points and only racked up 340 total yards, while averaging just 4.7 yards per play.
Sticking true to his word, head coach Mike London has brought a power-running, pro-style offense to Charlottesville. UVA has stuck with the run in all of their games and their runners have surprisingly done well. The RB corps appeared to be a weak spot with no one returning with much experience, but Keith Payne (217 yards, 5.4 average, 5 TDs) and Perry Jones (207 yards, 6.5 average) have been pretty solid, including in the USC game.
The WR corps can go at least three deep with Dontrelle Inman having stepped up to join Kris Burd and Tim Smith. Inman (15 receptions, 214 yards, 2 TDs) has been a surprise thus far and gives UVA an extra option in the passing game that they often lacked last year. Burd leads the team in catches. Smith is off to a slow start after having missed a game, but he probably has the best talent of the bunch. Joe Torchia (8 receptions, 102 yards) is a dangerous option at TE too.
Marc Verica is your QB for the foreseeable future. Much like the BYU team FSU faced, most figured the upperclassman QB would be pushed aside by a hotshot youngster. That may not be the case after all, though, for UVA. Verica struggled against USC, but he has put up good stats (697 yards, 61%, 5 TDs, 1 int.), upped his completion percentage, and limited mistakes.
What we don’t know: Can Verica maintain this level? The senior was just 17 of 36 against USC in a winnable game for the Cavs. If Verica can avoid turnovers and keep his completion percentage around 60, he will be useful. If not, UVA may have to get ready for the future and play Michael Rocco or Ross Metheny more. I’m skeptical that Verica can maintain this level of play as I think what we saw against USC is the real Verica—a guy who struggles against decent defenses and has accuracy issues.
Can the offensive line maintain? Even against USC, the Cavs’ line, seen as a weak point, has actually held up well. They’ve only given up 5 sacks thus far and the running game is averaging 4.7 yards per rush. This isn’t an elite group by any means and any injuries could decimate them. Again, I have a hard time believing the line can play well week in and week out.
DEFENSE
What we know: As suspected, this is the backbone and strength of the team. London made his name as a defensive coordinator and this defense has been stout thus far. Again, they have feasted on two I-AA teams, but this unit looked good against USC as well. They held the Trojans to just 329 total yards and 4.8 yards per play. This unit has been especially stout against the run.
The defensive line has been solid. There were concerns about the LB corps, but the defensive line has been so good getting pressure and stuffing the run that the LBs have been shielded from having to make many plays. Cam Johnson (17 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks) has been very productive in his switch from OLB to DE and is worth watching.
The secondary has been a strength. Chase Minnifield has picked off 3 passes thus far. NFL prospect Ras-I Dowling, perhaps the ACC’s best corner, is just getting into a groove after missing the first few games with an injury. Sophomore Devin Wallace is looking pretty solid after starting all 3 games thus far.
What we don’t know: Is the LB corps any good? The defensive line has really kept pressure off this unit, but no one guy has stepped up. LaRoy Reynolds has been the star so far with just 3 tackles for loss. Aaron Taliaferro and Steve Greer have shared the MLB spot and neither has stood out. OLB Jared Detrick is just returning from injury. Ausar Walcott looks the part, but hasn’t come up with any big plays. Not much was expected from senior Darnell Carter, but he has 1.5 sacks thus far. This unit is not making many big plays, but they haven’t had to. If a good offensive line stonewalls the Cavs’ front four, can these guys step up?
Will the line continue to produce? Johnson, John-Kevin Dolce, and Matt Conrath are really playing at a high level right now, but the season is early. Will the eventual wear and tear kill this group? UVA is not deep at any one position and once the starters start to get gassed, will this unit wilt?
Can the secondary stay healthy? Dowling and safety Rodney McLeod have battled injuries thus far. McLeod has yet to play many minutes, but is expected to be 100% for the FSU game. Can guys like Trey Womack, Wallace, and Dom Joseph, who were destined to be backups but have had to start or play significant minutes, continue to play solid football?
SPECIAL TEAMS
What we know: The kicking unit is pretty bad. Robert Randolph is 2 of 5 thus far on field goals and Chris Hinkebein, the long-range kicker, missed his only attempt. UVA really has to be down around the 20-yard line for a field goal to even be an option.
The punt return and coverage units need work. Minnifield is averaging just 5 yards per return and looks tentative. The coverage units, on the other hand, are giving up over 13 yards per return.
Raynard Horne is a dangerous kick returner. Horne has taken one 87 yards to pay dirt and is averaging over 30 yards per return.
What we don’t know: Who is the long-term solution at kicker? Hinkebein has the bigger leg, but Randolph is supposedly more accurate. This looks like a season-long headache.
Will Minnifield improve? Minnifield is no Greg Reid, but he looks just as frustrated when it comes to returning punts. Used to breaking a few long ones, Minnifield has been contained thus far and it seems to be eating at him.
OVERALL
This Virginia team is still a bit of a mystery 3 games into the season. Schematically, they are doing what most expected on both offense and defense. They are doing things probably a bit better than many expected, but nothing crazy has occurred. Much like FSU after the Samford matchup, I think some people have figured UVA must be pretty decent since they whipped up on two I-AA teams and hung tough with USC. Just like FSU learned when they went to Oklahoma, sometimes things can be deceiving. I don’t see this Virginia team being as good as the USC game might’ve shown them to be. As USC proved the next week at Minnesota, the Trojans may have their own problems that helped UVA stay close.
All that being said, UVA is a dangerous matchup for FSU. They are coming off of a game against a weak opponent in which their starters got to rest early and before that was a bye week. They’ve had plenty of time to focus on this game. Plus, UVA is a physical team that will run the ball and play tough defense. Truth be told, I think UVA is probably the worst offense FSU will face besides Samford, but if they can run the ball and shorten the clock, they can hang around in this game.
FSU’s defensive line is better than UVA’s offensive line and Verica doesn’t scare me so I wouldn’t be shocked to see FSU hold UVA to 14 points or less. I do think their defense can keep them in the game, but I also think FSU can pull away in the second half as they did against BYU and Wake Forest. I haven’t seen enough of UVA to guess what FSU’s game plan will be, but I do think that FSU pulls the game out in the end. On paper, FSU has the more talented team and could win in a blowout, but something tells me this may be a 10-15 point win.
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